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OCTOBER 5,  2018

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:

ALMOST HOME – Unless there's a serious surprise, Brett Kavanaugh should be confirmed as an associate justice of the Supreme Court late Saturday, October 6th.  But a surprise can happen, including some last-minute procedural or legal gimmick, or the Dems finding a judge in Hawaii to rule that conservatism is unconstitutional.  I won't rest until the judge is sworn in.

COLLINS – Susan Collins, never regarded as a Senate great, achieved special status, not only with her decision to back Judge Kavanaugh, but with her brilliant speech explaining her reasoning.  That is what advice and consent is about.  Mitch McConnell said, correctly, that it was one of the best speeches he's ever heard in the Senate.  Collins is now under vicious attack from the hard left, with Obama national-security hack Susan Rice volunteering to run against her next year in Maine.  I didn't know Rice lived in Maine, but details don't matter.  Signs are already appearing calling Collins a "rape apologist."

HE'S STILL THERE? – Dan Rather has announced that his wife is outraged and deeply upset by the prospect of a Justice Kavanaugh.  For those of you who care, letters of comfort can be written. 

DISGRACEFUL – In a last-minute ploy, the American Bar Association informed the Senate that it is reopening its inquiry into Judge Kavanaugh's suitability for the Supreme Court, based on questions of temperament.  The ABA, known as a very liberal organization, had given Kavanaugh its highest rating.  The inquiry will not be completed before the confirmation vote, so it seems ridiculous.  I get the feeling that the ABA is trying to set a precedent allowing it to pass judgment on a sitting Supreme Court justice.  This will only diminish the ABA. 

TARGETED? – As of now, Democrat Joe Manchin of heavily pro-Trump West Virginia, will be the only Democrat voting for Judge Kavanaugh.  It won't hurt him in West Virginia, but his party may attempt to destroy him in the Senate.  There have been hints in the past that Manchin will switch to the GOP – he's sometimes called Trump's Democrat – and it's conceivable.   An office is available, with a coffee maker.  A food taster is on call.  Manchin is up for re-election as a Democrat next month, but he could make the switch next session.

MITCH – The mainstream media hasn't focused on him, but Mitch McConnell has handled the Kavanaugh confirmation with ability and strength.  He emerges as a distinguished majority leader.  We need to give him more Senate seats so he can lead the Senate to more victories.

We await the formal vote.

October 5,  2018     Permalink

BULLETIN – AT 4:25 P.M. ET:  DEMOCRATIC SENATOR JOE MANCHIN OF WEST VIRGINIA HAS ANNOUNCED HE WILL VOTE "YES" TO CONFIRM JUDGE KAVANAUGH. 

BULLETIN – AT 3:58 P.M.ET:    REPUBLICAN SENATOR SUSAN COLLINS OF MAINE HAS JUST ANNOUNCED SHE WILL VOTE IN FAVOR OF JUDGE KAVANAUGH'S CONFIRMATION.  KAVANAUGH NOW APPEARS TO HAVE ANOUGH SUPPORT TO BE CONFIRMED TOMORROW NIGHT BY ONE OR TWO VOTES.  EARLIER, REPUBLICAN SENATOR JEFF FLAKE OF ARIZONA SAID HE WOULD VOTE "YES" UNLESS SOMETHING EXPLOSIVE HAPPENED.  MANCHIN OF WEST VIRGINIA HAS YET TO DECLARE.  STAND BY.  NOTHING IS CERTAIN UNTIL THE VOTE IS ACTUALLY TAKEN.

KAV FIRES UP GOP – AT 12:51 P.M. ET:  The Kavanaugh election?  Well, it may just be happening.  From Axios:   

Top Republicans tell Axios that they're seeing a surprising and widespread surge in GOP voter enthusiasm, powered largely by support for Brett Kavanaugh and his Supreme Court nomination.

What they're saying: "The Kavanaugh debate has dropped a political grenade into the middle of an electorate that had been largely locked in Democrats' favor for the past six months," said Josh Holmes, a former top aide to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.

• Pointing to Montana, Indiana, West Virginia, Missouri and Tennessee, Holmes added: "[P]rivate polling shows the enthusiasm shift is ... unmistakable in the red states that will determine control of the Senate."

In North Dakota, one of the top races, a Fox News poll yesterday showed Republican challenger Kevin Cramer leading Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) by 12 points (53%-41%) — up from four points last month.

• "ND now appears out of reach entirely for Democrats," Holmes said.
Another stark example:

• Missouri Rising Action, a super PAC backing Republican Josh Hawley, yesterday got back numbers from pollster Jim McLaughlin showing Hawley leading Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) by 52-44.

• That's a huge swing from the previous poll, in June, which had McCaskill leading Hawley 46-42.

Across the critical midterm states, Republicans point to a major mood swing among voters — what one top operative called a "tidal shift."

An NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll released yesterday found that the "wide Democratic enthusiasm advantage that has defined the 2018 campaign up to this point has disappeared," NPR reported.

• "In July, there was a 10-point gap between the number of Democrats and Republicans saying the November elections were 'very important.' Now, that is down to 2 points, a statistical tie."

• Republican pollster Glen Bolger, co-founder of Public Opinion Strategies, agreed that Democrats' enthusiasm advantage dissipated since the Kavanaugh-Ford hearing. Before that, he said, GOP lassitude was "very scary."

Caution: This doesn't mean GOP problems are solved. They still have a huge problem with independent voters.

• But GOP pollsters and strategists like Bolger are breathing slightly easier because they are at least more confident now that the Republican base wants to turn out and vote in the midterms.

House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy said on a conference call with some major donors yesterday that fresh party polling showed the Kavanaugh fight had awakened Republican voters in some key House districts.

COMMENT:  As they say, the only poll that counts is the one on election day. The key is turnout.  The president, as motivator-in-chief, must get his base out, then add to it.  With turnout will come victory, and the president poised for 2020. 

October 5, 2018       Permalink

TRUMP HITS 51% – AT 11:56 A.M. ET:  The president continues his rise in the Rasmussen daily tracker.  From Rasmussen: 

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows that 51% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Forty-eight percent (48%) disapprove.

The latest figures include 38% who Strongly Approve of the president is performing and 39% who Strongly Disapprove. This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -1.

COMMENT:  It's been a steady rise this week.  There are no guarantees for the future, and other polls have the president lower.  However, the wind seems to be at his back, and voter resentment over the treatment of Judge Kavanaugh is plainly helping him. 

I expect the president to accelerate his campaigning.  He undoubtedly sees a major opening for the GOP to limit losses in this midterm, and possibly increase seats in the Senate.

October 5,  2018     Permalink

BULLETIN:  AT 10:55 A.M. ET:  The Senate divides 51-49 to end debate and move the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to a final vote.  However, Lisa Murkowski, the semi-Republican from Alaska, voted no.  She is probably lost.  That leaves three of the "holdout" senators – Collins, Flake and Manchin, all of whom voted aye to advance to a vote.  That does not guarantee they will vote to confirm the nominee tomorrow night, when the confirmation vote is held.  SUSAN COLLINS WILL ANNOUNCE HER VOTE AT 3 P.M. TODAY.  If she goes with Kavanaugh, we have a good shot at confirmation.  If she announces a "no" vote, I don't see how the judge can be confirmed.  Stand by.

BULLETIN:  Murkowski votes against moving forward with Kavanaugh's nomination.  Collins, Flake and Manchin vote aye.  Stand by.

CLERK IS CALLING THE ROLL RIGHT NOW.  TUNE INTO FOX.

STAND BY:   It's 10:22 A.M. ET.  The cloture vote in the US Senate is scheduled for only minutes away.  As we've noted, if cloture passes the Senate will vote, up or down, on Judge Kavanaugh late tomorrow.  Some believe that the cloture vote will predict the final vote, but I'd be awfully careful about that.  This has been a very unusual confirmation process, and the four holdouts – Collins, Murkowski, Flake, and Manchin, are notoriously independent.

OCTOBER 4,  2018

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

THE COUNTDOWN – The next big event in the major motion picture, "Here Comes Brett," will occur tomorrow (Friday) morning or early afternoon, when the Senate votes on whether to impose cloture, which in this case would mean the start of a 30-hour waiting period that would end, late Saturday, in a final vote for or against confirmation of Judge Kavanaugh. 

WHERE IT STANDS – Exactly where it stood last night, with one exception.  Hopeless Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp, running for re-election in the pro-Kavanaugh state of North Dakota, announced that she's a "no" on Kavanaugh, which will make her even more unpopular in her state.  Polls show her far behind, with really no chance of re-election, and some believed she would vote for the judge to boost her standing.  She apparently calculated that she'd rather satisfy her Democratic base, so she'll have someone to have lunch with in her impending retirement. 

The other holdouts who will decide Kavanaugh's fate are still held out, even though they know everything they're gonna.  Susan Collins, Republican of Maine, is doing a Hamlet, although reports say she tilts toward the judge.  Lisa Murkowski, semi-Republican of Alaska, is similarly Shakespearean.  She has given no hint.  Jeff Flake of Arizona, leaving the Senate at the end of his term, has hinted at a "yes," but the hint is only a whisper.  Joe Manchin, Dem of heavily Trump West Virginia, wants to read more.   Apparently there are some good novels in the Senate reading room.

CLOSE CALL – Those with heart conditions got a scare earlier tonight when it was announced that Republican Senator Steve Daines of Montana would possibly miss the confirmation vote because his daughter is getting married Saturday night.  Apparently Senator Daines received an appropriate appeal, including a discussion of how much he valued his knees, and hurriedly called Judge Kavanaugh to assure him he'd be there for the vote.

AN ANGRY GRASSLEY – Senator Chuck Grassley, chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee, is generally mild, but today he called out members of the press for bias, something I've never seen him do before.  Good for Chuck.  The behavior of the press in the Kavanaugh case has been even more disgraceful than usual.  The press has acted as a cheering section for Professor Ford and the Democrats, and a serial harasser of Judge Kavanaugh.  I do believe most Americans are onto this.  I wonder how long they'll continue to watch some news channels and read some newspapers.  The press is not doing the job the Founders intended, and the public must make the market work and pull the plug on some of these propaganda outlets, while not restricting press freedom. 

We now await the cloture vote.  We also await any last-minute surprises, which are likely to come.  Stand by for a last-minute mystery witness, who personally saw Brett Kavanaugh do strange things with Mickey Mouse.

October 4, 2018       Permalink 

ALL KAV ALL THE TIME – AT 12:52 P.M. ET:  The senators are reading the FBI background report on Judge Kavanaugh.   It appears that, not only is there no smoking gun that can hurt him, there isn't even a bow and arrow.  Or a flying paper clip.  From Fox: 

Fresh from viewing the much-anticipated FBI supplemental report on Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Charles Grassley declared nothing in the document changed his mind and that it was time for the Senate to vote on the jurist's high-court confirmation.

“I’ve now received a committee staff briefing on the FBI’s supplement to Judge Kavanaugh’s background investigation file," the Iowa lawmaker said Thursday. "There’s nothing in it that we didn’t already know. These uncorroborated accusations have been unequivocally and repeatedly rejected by Judge Kavanaugh, and neither the Judiciary Committee nor the FBI could locate any third parties who can attest to any of the allegations.

“It’s time to vote," Grassley added. "I’ll be voting to confirm Judge Kavanaugh.”

Grassley was the first senator to view the document, which was ordered by the White House after allegations of decades-old sexual misconduct emerged against Kavanaugh after his nomination hearing before Grassley's committee had ended last week. Other members of the committee and the full Senate will be permitted to view the documents in a secure facility later today.

The FBI interviewed nine potential witnesses in search of possible corroboration of Christine Ford's claim the now 53-year-old Kavanaugh forcibly groped her when they were teenagers. Although the report is not expected to be made public, potential witnesses named by Ford previously said they had no knowledge of the party where she claims the attack occurred.

COMMENT:  So far, so good.  But we still have not heard definitively from Flake, Collins, and Murkowski, the three Republicans who are publicly uncommitted.  Nor have we heard from Democrats from red states.

The next big event, barring public announcements from the holdouts, will come tomorrow, possibly early, when the Senate will vote to cut off debate, an act known as cloture.  If it passes, a 30-hour waiting period will go into effect.  The Senate could vote on confirmation as early as late Saturday.

If Cavanaugh is confirmed, I wonder what kind of swearing-in he'll have.  Considering the circumstances, and knowing Trump, I think the president will go big.

October 4, 2018        Permalink

PRESIDENT AT 50% – AT 12:08 P.M. ET:  The latest Rasmussen tracker shows Mr. Trump continuing to rise.   He's out there fighting, and it makes a difference.  From Rasmussen:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows that 50% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Forty-nine percent (49%) disapprove. 

The latest figures include 37% who Strongly Approve of the way Trump is performing and 40% who Strongly Disapprove. This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -3.

COMMENT:  The president has hit this mark before in Rasmussen, but hasn't touched it recently.  I think you'll see, in the next month, the longest sustained political effort by a president in our memory.  I wouldn't be shocked if Mr. Trump rose into the lower fifties.

October 4,  2018     Permalink